Can New Zealand Survive Global Warming?

by Robert Adams

In the United States today, there is a lot of buzz around the words “global warming”. Some people are asking if it is a real concern, or simply a fabrication. Others are begging the general public to change the way we are treating the environment, claiming that soon it may be too late. Regardless of people’s opinions, measurements and observations seem to show that global climates have been increasing, and it is projected by many that climates may continue to increase, especially in correlation with the increase of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Many have talked about the effects that the Unites States may experience, as well as other large countries around the globe. But what might happen to the small islands scattered through out the Pacific, Atlantic, and other smaller oceans? Will they be able to keep up with the changes in climate?

New Zealand wanted to know what was going to happen to their islands, located in the southwest Pacific Ocean off the coast of Australia. The two islands are mostly covered in mountains, and experience degree of varying altitudes, although much of the island is at least 200 m above sea level. Parts of the northern island experience a warmer climate while the southern part of the northern island and the entire southern island experience coolers temperatures. This gives New Zealand a diverse spread of crops that can be grown throughout the two islands. Due to the varying altitudes and temperatures along the islands, the differences within even one single region can be great. Areas that contain suitable conditions for a particular crop may be scattered here and there throughout the diverse island. New Zealand’s main exports are sheep, cattle, and dairy production, but they produce lumber, fruits, and vegetables as well, which can be greatly affected by strong weather events. Increased precipitation, such as increased rain fall or heavy hail, can be damaging to crops and livestock. If the future was going to hold an ever increasing climate, as many predict, then New Zealand wanted to know what was coming and try its best to be ready for changes.

And so CLIMPACTS was born. CLIMPACTS is a computer system started in 1993 that is designed to predict future climate changes in New Zealand and project how the island will be affected. It uses existing models of projected global climate change over the next hundred years along with recorded climate data for New Zealand from the years 1950-1980. You may ask why climate data from over 50 years ago is being used, which is a fair question. That time period experienced a stable climate pattern that can be used to project future climate patterns, and 1950-1980 is the time period in which the most climate stations were recording data. CLIMPACTS creates predictions of monthly conditions on a grid with cells every .05^o latitude and longitude, covering all of New Zealand. Calculated conditions for the month include maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation. Altitude is a very important factor in the equation, since there can be vast variations in rainfall over short distances. CLIMPACTS can create three sets of models pertaining to vegetation, agriculture, and horticulture.  One of the key features of the CLIMPACTS system is its flexibility. It can be updated or altered with new models of global climate change or new data for specific New Zealand’s conditions. This system should be a great tool in the future for helping New Zealand prepare for possible effects of future climate change, but what possible effects could there be?

For one thing, being an island group, New Zealand is already more vulnerable than a bigger country or continent to the effects of raising sea level. Warming global temperatures are connected with the melting of glaciers, which add more water to oceans and raise sea levels. If the water rises a few feet, then islands could lose serious coastline, which is a much larger percentage of the overall area of a small island than a large continent. Low altitude areas would also be more likely to be close to the coast and more likely to flood. Also, changes in temperature could render an area unsuitable for the particular conditions needed for its crops to grow, especially if the region is already at the border of acceptable conditions for its vegetation. Increased water from melted glaciers also increases the amount of liquid water in the world, increasing the amount of global precipitation, which could potentially affect islands or anywhere else in the world. These are just a few possible ramifications of a rising global climate, and these are possible future effects that should be considered, especially by small islands.

But how will New Zealand hold up to potential global warming alterations? I think that New Zealand is actually in a fairly stable conditions as far as islands go. First off, it has a high average distance above sea level, so it should be able to survive the effects of a rising sea for some time before experiencing any grave danger. Increased precipitation could potentially be a problem, as heavy rainstorms or flooding which could occur from increased global rainfall could damage crops and decrease seasonal yields. The goods news is that New Zealand is more reliant on livestock than crops, and livestock should be less vulnerable to damage from precipitation. As far as rising temperatures go, some of the islands climate sensitive crops may not be able to survive rising temperatures. Fortunately, the CLIMPACTS predictions should be able to warn farmers of changing climates, giving them opportunities to possibly plan ahead and change their focus to other crops more suited for the direction the weather is changing, or maybe find new strains of their existing crops that will survive better in the new weather conditions. Overall I think that New Zealand should have a fighting chance against global warming effects, and should be able to continue to thrive as a stable island well into the future.

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