It's Getting Hot in Heerrrrrre

by Brian Pope

While Nelly’s “Hot in Here” is no more than a mere lyric, it becomes Earth’s perfect anthem for stating what is becoming an international dilemma – an increase in carbon dioxide leading to more lethal heat waves. McMichael et al. (2000) made the claim that climate change, along with other global processes, is likely to have profound and even unfamiliar consequences for human population health. It comes as no surprise that such an accusation remains true. However, it becomes essential that given current circumstances in climate variability today, specific measures in adaptation must be analyzed and executed.   

Heat waves are described as changes in weather on at least three successive nights whose minimum temperatures are 3 degrees Celsius above the long-term average for the late 20^th century (Cookson, 2004). Caused by an immense amount of greenhouse gasses collecting in the atmosphere, these gasses intensify an unusual atmospheric circulation pattern that is known as a common factor into the building of heat wave characteristics (Wagner, 2004). Already being considered one of the deadliest climate events, the relentlessness of this beast, according to a new climate-modeling study by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, will be felt in full on cities in the Northern Hemisphere as they are likely to experience longer, hotter, and more frequent heat waves during the 21^st century than from the 20^th (Wagner, 2004). While the focal point remains on preparing and preventing mortalities in the future, the impact of such a climate event has already been felt by the U.S. population as death tolls reached over 700 in Chicago during a heat wave in the summer of 1995 (Cookson, 2004). To worsen the situation, a report from Perry (2004) states that according to researchers, “without worldwide cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the average number of heat waves... will increase to an average of 2.15 a year." Projections from a model developed by NCAR scientists Gerald Meehl and Claudia Tebaldi confirm this statement and have already estimated an increase in heat wave duration in major cities across the globe. Chicago is likely to experience a 25% increase a year in average heat waves, lasting 8.5-9.24 days, while Paris is expected to experience a 31% increase a year in average heat waves that last 11.39-17.04 days (Meehl et al., 2004). Many might contradict the previous assertions as mere scare tactics to promote a green-friendly economy, and that required actions are needed in the future, not today. Rest assured such is not the case as today’s climate calamity appears as nothing more than a dress rehearsal compared to the climate catastrophe that lies ahead in the not so distant future. To prove point in case, analysis of Antarctic ice cores shows that the level of CO2 over the last 500,000 years has ranged during ice ages between 200ppm (parts per million) to 270ppm (Morrison, 2006). Today however, it stands at approximately 380ppm and is even predicted to reach 400ppm within a decade (Morrison, 2006).

            So then what can be done in the eye of annihilation? Much more than one would think. But before direct methods of reducing carbon dioxide can be executed, one must have a general understanding of how to most effectively implement the strategies. McMichael (2004) distinguished 3 different types of modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards that exist: biological, behavioral and social. While general decisions of adaptation are made by individuals, organizations, and governments on behalf of society (Adger, 2003), each of these modes coincides with current beliefs shared by scientists, theorists, institutional bodies, and even social groups. The first mode, biological adaptation (passive adaptation), occurs when “individuals become physiologically adapted to a change in background temperature or when levels of immunity rise within a community in response to increased exposure to an infectious agent” (McMichael et al., 2004). Some examples are those that occur unconsciously such as the natural adjusting of a human’s physiological system to the changing of seasons (i.e. summer to winter and vice versa). The second mode, behavioral adaptation, primarily applies at the personal level when individuals are actively reducing their risk of exposure to a health hazard (McMichael et al., 2004). One of the main arguments about heat waves becomes that while some physiological adjustment to heat-stressful conditions can occur over several days, complete adaptation to an unfamiliar thermal environment may take several years, and thus becomes the chief reason for death by heat (Frisancho, 1991). Direct examples that are used to avoid mortalities caused by heat waves include physiological acclimations through the use of cooling systems in the city, or adaptations in lifestyle (i.e. design of houses to either cool more efficiently or heat more effectively, clothing styles acclimated to climate to either warm or cool oneself) (Michael et al., 2004). Lastly social adaptation occurs at the community level through collective changes in behavior, surveillance, administrative or service-provision systems and technical interventions (i.e. building infrastructures, health early warning systems, housing designs, immunization programs, vector control, and health care facilities) (McMichael et al., 2004).

The process of adaptation continues on when Patz (1996) describes that in essence, three control strategies can help to protect population health: administrative or legislative, engineering, or personal. Patz (1996) explains that regulatory action may be taken by the government, requiring compliance by everyone, or adaptive action may be encouraged on a voluntary basis that is encouraged through advocacy, education, or economic incentives. The bottom line becomes that adaptation strategies will either be reactive, in response to a climate situation, or proactive, in order to reduce vulnerability.

            Knowing how adaptive tactics can be implemented, what can be said about the exact actions taken to reduce carbon dioxide? According to Princeton professors Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow, “in order to keep emission from increasing over the next 50 years, humanity will have to reduce carbon output by 7 billion tons a year,” Wagner (2004). So a proposal containing an extensive list of strategies that can achieve the ultimate goal of carbon dioxide reduction (without subtracting from the world’s need for energy) was created. This list includes some of the following solutions incorporating all the different adaptation modes mentioned previously: capturing and storing emissions from 800 coal electric plants, halving the number of car miles traveled, doubling fuel efficiency of 2 billion cars – from 30 to 60 mpg, adopting conservative tillage in all agricultural soils worldwide, and eliminating tropical deforestation and creating new plantations of non-forested lands to quintuple current plantation area, to name several (Wagner, 2004).

            In hindsight, what once started off as a hip-hop summer anthem hit for Nelly in 2002, has actually proven to be a fortune-telling precursor for the climate scenario the world faces today. In order to reduce and prevent more heat-related deaths due to climate change, certain levels of adaptation need to be implemented and advocated on a national, community, or individual basis. However, in order to know what we must implement we must first recognize the desired outcome, analyze the current state of affairs on a count-by-count basis, and proactively strive for change for a collective and mutual benefit for the near future. Only then can our plans be set in motion, devised strategies be executed, and benefits be reaped through reduction in carbon dioxide.

Works Cited

Adger, W. Neil (2003). Social Capital, Collective Action, and Adaptation to Climate Change. Economic Geography, 79(4), 387-404.  Retrieved November 30, 2007, from ABI/INFORM Global database. (Document ID: 508119731).

Cheng, S., M. Campbell, Q. Li, L. Guilong, H. Auld, N. Day, D. Pengelly, S. Gingrich, J. Klaassen, D. MacIver, N. Comer, Y. Mao, W. Thompson and H. Lin, 2005: Differential and Combined Impacts of Winter and Summer Weather and Air Pollution due to Global Warming on Human Mortality in South-Central Canada. Technical report (Health Policy Research Program: Project Number 6795-15-2001/4400011).

Cookson, Clive (2004, August 13). Lethal heatwaves are more likely CLIVE COOKSON SCIENCE BRIEFING :[LONDON 1ST EDITION]. Financial Times,p. 12.  Retrieved November 30, 2007, from ABI/INFORM Global database. (Document ID: 678259511).

Frisancho, R.: 1991, Human Adaptation: A Functional Interpretation. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor.

Hayhoe, K., D. Cayan, C. Field, P. Frumhoff, E. Maurer, N. Miller, S. Moser, S. Schneider, K. Cahill, E. Cleland, L. Dale, R. Drapek, R.M. Hanemann, L. Kalkstein, J. Leniham, C. Lunch, R. Neilson, S. Sheridan and J. Verville, 2004: Emission pathways, climate change, and impacts on California. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 101, 12422-12427.

Kalkstein, L. S. and Tan, G.: 1995, ‘Human health’ in K.M. Strzepek and J.B. Smith (eds), As Climate Changes: International Impacts and Implications. Cambridge University Press. New York, pp. 124-145.

Mcmichael A.J., & Sari Kovats R. (2000). Climate change and climate variability: Adaptations to reduce adverse health impacts. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 61(1), 49-64.

Meehl, G.A. and C. Tebaldi, 2004: More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21^st century. Science, 305, 994-997.

Morrison, Nick (2006, January 31). Pushing the planet to the limit :[Echofeat Edition]. Northern Echo,p. 10.  Retrieved November 30, 2007, from ABI/INFORM Trade & Industry database. (Document ID: 978565511).

Patz, J.A.: 1996, ‘Health adaptations to climate change: need for farsighted, integrated approaches’, in J.B. Smith et al. (eds), Adapting to Climate Change: An international Perspective. Springer, New York, pp. 440-464.

Perry, Dominic (2004, August). Turning up the heat. Commercial Motor, 200(5093), 28.  Retrieved November 30, 2007, from ABI/INFORM Trade & Industry database. (Document ID: 693039041).

Wagner, G. Cynthia (2004). Hotter Heat Waves Foreseen. The Futurist, 38(6), 7-8.  Retrieved November 30, 2007, from ABI/INFORM Global database. (Document ID: 711495141).