A Rainy Season with No Rain

by Anonymous 7

The United States is a country that relies on the stability of its agricultural production to survive. Large-scale farms operate as businesses to provide most of the food to an entire nation. Very few Americans grow their own food for subsistence and primarily rely on these agricultural businesses as their dietary tool for survival. The farmers responsible for growing these agricultural products, like corn, rely on the constant rainfall in the United States for the stability of the crop growth. Most of the regions in North America are lucky in that they receive rainfall in large doses throughout the year and not just during one season. Not only are they privy to rainfall on a regular bases, but farmers, in the United States, rely on irrigation systems as a means for watering their crops. Very few people in America rely on their own production of food to survive. With the rising efficiencies of long-term food preservation, crops can travel longer distances without spoiling and Americans can get their food from far-off locations without worrying that it has spoiled.

Now, imagine that the United States only receives rainfall, in heavy amounts, during one season. Not only is the rainfall diminished, but many regions do not rely on irrigation systems as a viable means to grow their crops. Agriculture also accounts for a large portion of the income and without it; the economy would suffer a massive blow. Most people rely on their own food production to provide for themselves and for their communities. This is a common economic model of many sub-Saharan African communities. Many people in Africa rely on their own means of production in order to survive. Not only are they growing their own food, but they are also holding jobs that are within the agricultural system. Over 70% of Kenya’s labor force lives and works in rural areas, which means that most of the population is participating in a rural economy or agriculture. Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa are primarily reliant on agriculture as their primary means of income. Agriculture alone accounts for 50% of Kenya’s principal export earnings. Now, one can imagine their dependence on the regular seasonal rainfall. What would happen if their rainfall pattern were to change or to stop completely due to a long term climate change caused by global warming? According to Mendelsohn’s model, Africa will suffer some of the greatest losses due to global warming. Using emission trajectories, Mendelsohn is able to predict the levels of different greenhouse gasses in the year 2100. Through predicting these levels of gasses, the average temperature increases in regions around the world can be predicted to form climate change scenarios. These scenarios assess how drastic the temperature increase will be in a region and the type of effect it will have on the climate. Africa is predicted to suffer from a huge economic loss by 2100 due to the 3.5 Celsius degree increase and loss of rainfall.

            The United States is currently experiencing a similar loss of rainfall. The Southeastern region, which is typically a very wet region, is suffering from a severe drought. Through this climate change, scientists are able to see what such a loss can do to the economy and their survival. The Southeast is suffering from a loss of agriculture, but are still able to survive on irrigation systems. They are also suffering from a large depletion of drinkable water, which is a plague that already affects most of sub-Saharan Africa. This model allows people to see how one season off little rainfall can affect a region. Now, if there were many seasons of little to no rainfall, how would that affect the region? Not only would a region, like the Southeastern United States, that depends so strongly on rainfall suffer from economic losses, but there would also be some other climate changes. With long periods of no rainfall, areas that were lush with vegetation would probably become barren and more erosion would occur. The areas around rivers would contain the highest population, because of their need for water and irrigation. With the lack of plants and erosion, when rainfall would occur, it would cause more erosion and devastation than in the past, because there are no plants to keep the soil intact. This environment is very similar to the climate that already exists in Africa after centuries of agricultural exploitation.

If the seasonal rainfall in Africa were to stop and the rainy season were to cease existing, areas that were dry for part of the year, but could support agriculture for the other part of year would become desert regions. There would be a huge loss of income for these regions and this would put these countries at risk for further debt and hardship. While it is doubtful that precipitation in all of sub-Saharan will cease, regions like Kenya are expected to experience a decrease in rainfall by 20% by the year 2100. People would not only lose their jobs, but also lose their ability to sustain themselves through agricultural production. They would lose the limited amount of drinking water that is already in small supply. Basically, a possible climate change due to global warming could be devastating to a region that relies so heavily on seasonal rain and agriculture. While global warming will affect the climate in different regions of the world in different ways, a loss of rainfall in a dry region, like sub-Saharan Africa, that is so dependent on seasonal agriculture, could be devastating.

Bibliography

Kabubo-Mariara, Jane. The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach. Global and Planetary Change, Volume 57, Issues 3-4, June 2007, Pages 319-330.

Mendelsohn, Robert. Climate change impacts on African agriculture. Preliminary analysis prepared for the World Bank, Washington, District of Columbia, 25pp.

Mendelsohn, Robert. Country-Specific Market Impacts of Climatic Change. Climatic Change, Volume 45, Numbers 3-4, June 2000, Pages 45, 553-569.

Sanchez, Pedro A. Linking climate change research with food security and poverty reduction in the tropics. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, Volume 82, Issues 1-3, December 2000, Pages 371-383.