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            Aside from sandy beaches, clear waters, and being popular vacation destinations, what do Aruba, Jamaica, Bermuda, the Bahamas and all other islands of the Caribbean have in common?  They may all be in danger of drowning. 

            Increased levels of greenhouse gases (i.e. water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) are emitted into in the Earth’s atmosphere every day.  Greenhouse gases, when emitted in to the Earth’s atmosphere, have an absorbing effect for the Sun’s radiation and “trap” its heat, preventing it from escaping the atmosphere.  This prevention causes our planet’s overall temperature to increase (Ruddiman 21).  Over the last forty years, as the population of the Earth has increased, the amounts of greenhouse gases released in to its atmosphere have increased as well.  These increased amounts of greenhouse gases have caused an almost alarming rise in the Earth average temperature.  According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the average temperature of the Earth may rise anywhere between two and eleven degrees Fahrenheit during this century (Keeping Afloat).

            How might an increase in Earth’s temperature cause an island to drown?  It does this indirectly via three main ways.  First, as the temperature of the Earth increases it warms ocean surface water temperatures.  Increases in ocean water temperature cause water molecules to expand and occupy more space.  Scientists are able to measure ocean temperature by strategically placing buoys throughout the Earth’s oceans which record water temperature and other data.  According to an article in Environmental Health, the sea surface temperature has increased approximately 1.5ºF since the 1900s (Keeping Afloat). 

            Second, as Earth’s temperature increases it causes glaciers in the poles to melt and the melted ice flows to the oceans.  Scientists are able to study satellite profiles of worldwide sea levels and these profiles show the average sea level rises roughly three millimeters per year.  Three millimeter per year is an almost 50% increase from the two millimeters it was twelve years ago (Keeping Afloat). 

            Lastly, an increase in global temperature causes the Earth’s climate to change.  Although not proven, this climate change may increase hurricane activity and hurricane intensity in the Caribbean.  Increases in hurricane activity and intensity cause damage to the coral reefs that provide protection for these island beaches.  Without this protection, many Caribbean beaches and shorelines are eroding (Daniel 53). 

            A one and a half degree Fahrenheit increase in ocean temperatures?  A three millimeter rise in sea level? These all sound like minuscule amounts, however, there are scientists who predict a worst case scenario of glacial melting could cause a rise in sea level of over one meter.  An increase of this proportion could put more than one hundred million people in danger.  According to an article in the Environment News Science, an increase to this extreme would be highly unlikely in most areas; however, it may be likely for Caribbean island sea levels to rise 30 to 50 centimeters over the next fifty years.  Many roads, buildings, and houses on these islands are built very close to the waters’ edge (sometimes just meters away), creating no distance or haven between the rising ocean waters and islander communities.  Islanders have few options when dealing with the threat of sea level rise.  They can “abandon threatened areas, retreat to higher [inland] ground, or build walls to hold back the sea” (Keeping Afloat).   

            Although these options are available for people living on Caribbean islands, many do not see them as solutions.  The sea plays a critical role in the culture of islanders and many do not see abandonment as an option; some islands do no have higher ground for inhabitants to retreat to; and sea walls may be ineffective and very costly.  Other harsh outcomes of increased sea level for Caribbean islands may be “changes in agriculture and food production, biodiversity loss…and increases in certain disease [agents]” (Keeping Afloat).  

            However, there is hope for these island nations.  Over the past decade, several meetings and conferences have been held uniting leaders of these islands.  Constructing adaptation strategies and corrective action plans are of top priority at these gatherings.  One adaptation strategy, called the Mauritius Strategy, is a very detailed document that consists of actions island nations should perform in order to better prepare for rise in sea levels.  It is estimated that “if taken seriously [the Mauritius Strategy] will make up for the deficiencies of the last ten years” (Keeping Afloat).  Another program, the Caribbean adaptation planning program, is helping island nations adapt to the problem of increasing sea levels (Vulnerable Caribbean Nations Prepare for Global Warming).  Although these strategies and plans are available, some Caribbean islands are finding it difficult to secure enough funding for such procedures.

            Although there is evidence of increasing sea levels, scientists can only hypothesize the impact this will have on the islands of the Caribbean.  However, people should be aware of the hazards increasing temperatures impose on these islands and how their vulnerability may make them susceptible to extinction.