What is the Climate Deal with Africa?

Hello Dukes! I am sure everyone out there knows at least a little bit about Global Warming. Maybe from time to time you have wondered what effects changing climate will have on The United States, or what effects it will have on James Madison University. But what about other countries or continents? What about other countries who might not be best equipped to handle the changing weather? What about Africa? With so many of our students interested in doing Peace Corps work in Africa after they graduate, and other International Affairs students who have their concentration in Africa, these questions and concerns are held at high esteem. Africa is a continent whose countries already have a handle of problems to deal with. Some countries are torn apart by civil war, others are fighting problems with agriculture, and still others are swept by disease. Some are encountering all these problems at the same time. With situations like these happening now, what government has the time to deal with predicted climates in the future? How will these predicted climates affect these countries and the problems they already face?

            The latest IPCC or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has released the latest data on the expected climate changes for Africa. Through a series of experiments, graphs, and studying the history of climate in Africa, the IPCC is one of the most valid climate reports we have to this day. The IPCC estimates an average temperature increase from 3-4 degrees Celsius (443). Also, they predict a definite decrease in the amount of rainfall Africa has each year. The precise measurements are harder to come by and do vary upon the region. The rest of IPCC report on Africa is consumed by the drastic affects these changes will have on Africa. Although they only appear like subtle changes, something that The United States, we would hope, would be able to handle, these ‘subtle’ changes could have devastating effects on the continent of Africa.

            Living in Virginia, we do not think that a decrease in rainfall would cause problems for a country. Maybe some of you have lived out west where having water is harder, but definitely not that big of an issue. But in Africa, water is already on high demand, and even without climate change, Africans struggle on a daily basis to grow crops and hydrate themselves. Africa is a land for agriculture, but without the needed nutrients and rich, hydrated soil, the crops will not succeed. Agriculture, is the main source of money in Africa, so if the crops do not succeed, it will plummet African citizens even more into a state of poverty. Already, the western regions of Africa have been affected by overwhelming forest fires. These forest fires have destroyed any hopes for the crops and have left Africans in distress for food and money. Yet again, the degree in water stress in regard to agriculture is not consistent throughout the country.  The IPCC report divides the continent on how affected they will be and gives an estimate to the losses. The most susceptible part of Africa, it seems, is the Sahara region which is estimated to lose up to seven percent of its Gross Domestic Product. Next are central and western parts of the continent, with estimates of up to four percent in losses. Finally, the northern and southern regions of Africa are the least in danger, with estimates only to about one percent (IPCC, 447).

            Health is also a huge concern for scientists on climate change. Africa is one of the continents in the world that has been swept by epidemics of illnesses, mainly malaria. Besides the health majors out there, most of us are not too familiar with malaria. Basically, malaria is an infectious illness with no current vaccine. This illness has taken over Africa, as it is easily spread by mosquitoes. What more can climate do if Africa has already been pretty much taken over? Well it is hard to say. Obviously the changing climate can affect where mosquitoes inhabit. It can make regions that were not vulnerable for malaria more vulnerable. Different parts of Zimbabwe for instance would experience this.

            Of course, the predicted climate and rainfall changes are exactly that, predicted. But just because they are predicted precautions does not mean we can simply stand by and wait for it to happen. The amount of research and data that goes into the IPCC reports is startling. Is Africa prepared to encounter these changes? Are the governments in Africa stable enough to support research and bear the costs? Are the people ready to adapt to these changes? Making adjustments to these climate changes can overall reduce the costs, but it can only go so far (Yohe, 18).  Only time will answer those questions. Want to find out more about Africa and potential climate change? Read this year’s IPCC report at http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/ or check out South Africa’s website on the environment at http://www.environment.gov.za/. Remember next time you here something about global warming or climate change that we are not the only ones to be affected by it!

                                                  Bibliography

Boko, M., I. Niang, A. Nyong, C. Vogel, A. Medany, B. Osman-Elasha, R. Tabo and P.

Yanda, 2007: Africa. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, 433-467.

“Change From Arid to Wet Climate in Africa Altered Early Human Evolution.”

National Science Foundation. 6 September 2007. http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jspantn_id=109984

McGraw-Hill Encyclopedia of Science and Technology Online. McGraw-Hill “Africa.”

            2007. http://www.accessscience.com/Africa.

University of California- Santa Barbara. “West African Ocean Sediment Core Links

Monsoons to Global Climate Evolution.” Science Daily. 1 June 2007. 18 November 2007. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/05/070531142108.htm>

Yohe, G. and M. Schlesinger, 2002: The Economic Geography of the Impacts of

                        Climate Change. Journal Economic Geography., 2, 311-341.